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asher553This is the book I've been waiting for.
People of my generation grew up with the myth of "the population bomb", the notion that the Earth's human population was growing at a dangerously high rate, which would surely lead to widespread misery and mass starvation. In reality, what we are witnessing now is a birth dearth, with fertility rates plummeting worldwide and many affluent nations already losing population in absolute numbers, as more and more women bear children below the replacement level, or not at all?
But who are the outliers?
That's the question I wondered about for years, and that's the question this book sets out to answer. Catherine Ruth Pakaluk is the credited author, but this study is the work of Catherine, her colleague Emily, and their assistants Mary and Sierra respectively. These four women and their 55 subjects present us with a lively, detailed, and inspiring picture of college-educated American women who have become mothers to five or more children.
--
Of particular interest to me was the observation by many of the subjects - both those who came from large families of origin themselves, and those who did not - that the experience of growing up among many siblings, who require care and negotiation, matures a child in ways that growing up in a household of one or two children simply does not.
--
Without wanting to sound callous about the issue, I see the fertility decline as serious but I think it will ultimately be self-correcting. Clearly it is not the case that every woman in America is now giving birth to exactly 1.7 children; the low-fertility component of the population will select itself out, and the high-fertility portion will take its place.
As an economist, Catherine Pakaluk undoubtedly understands the Pareto Principle much better than I do. But if 5 percent of women are each bearing 5 children or more, then I am certain that those children will make up more than 5 percent of their generation. And if, as the evidence suggests, the propensity for large families is inherited (because children growing up with many siblings will be less intimidated by the prospect of parenthood themselves) then this effect will only be amplified from one generation to the next.
So, I am optimistic that the birth dearth will bottom out, and the "outliers" of today will in fact be the trend-setters of the next generation.
The future belongs to those who show up. This is a book about the ones who will show up.
People of my generation grew up with the myth of "the population bomb", the notion that the Earth's human population was growing at a dangerously high rate, which would surely lead to widespread misery and mass starvation. In reality, what we are witnessing now is a birth dearth, with fertility rates plummeting worldwide and many affluent nations already losing population in absolute numbers, as more and more women bear children below the replacement level, or not at all?
But who are the outliers?
That's the question I wondered about for years, and that's the question this book sets out to answer. Catherine Ruth Pakaluk is the credited author, but this study is the work of Catherine, her colleague Emily, and their assistants Mary and Sierra respectively. These four women and their 55 subjects present us with a lively, detailed, and inspiring picture of college-educated American women who have become mothers to five or more children.
--
Of particular interest to me was the observation by many of the subjects - both those who came from large families of origin themselves, and those who did not - that the experience of growing up among many siblings, who require care and negotiation, matures a child in ways that growing up in a household of one or two children simply does not.
--
Without wanting to sound callous about the issue, I see the fertility decline as serious but I think it will ultimately be self-correcting. Clearly it is not the case that every woman in America is now giving birth to exactly 1.7 children; the low-fertility component of the population will select itself out, and the high-fertility portion will take its place.
As an economist, Catherine Pakaluk undoubtedly understands the Pareto Principle much better than I do. But if 5 percent of women are each bearing 5 children or more, then I am certain that those children will make up more than 5 percent of their generation. And if, as the evidence suggests, the propensity for large families is inherited (because children growing up with many siblings will be less intimidated by the prospect of parenthood themselves) then this effect will only be amplified from one generation to the next.
So, I am optimistic that the birth dearth will bottom out, and the "outliers" of today will in fact be the trend-setters of the next generation.
The future belongs to those who show up. This is a book about the ones who will show up.
